Instant Reaction: Jobs, August 2, 2024

Mortgage rates are plunging on the news of weak job growth and rising unemployment. The 4.3% unemployment rate is the highest since coming out of the COVID lockdown and higher than the 3.5% unemployment rate right before the COVID-19 arrival. The hourly wage gain of 3.2% is the weakest in 3 years.

The Fed was late moving away from the restrictive monetary policy stance when early signs of a softening economy were visible. Soft manufacturing survey data, falls in construction activity, and damaging financing costs for small businesses clearly hint at a cooling economy and further cooling in inflation. The Fed may make a deeper cut of 50 basis points in September.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate looks to fall to 6.5% or even lower in the upcoming weeks. That is what the 10-year bond yield suggests, which plunged to 3.8% this morning, compared to 4.8% a few months ago. The 100-basis-point change in mortgage rates generally means around a $300 lower payment on a typical mortgage. Homebuyers who were priced out a few months ago should re-check whether they can enter the homebuying market if they have secure jobs.